Mr. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard es una de las estrellas del Barclays’ Telegraph, el diario que compran las clases pudientes inglesas, y órgano semioficial del Partido Conservador. Es un diario relativamente parecido al ABC/Madrid, aunque de una derecha inglesa civilizada, no la montaraz derecha española, en fin, es lo que hay.
Don Ambrosio mantiene una línea anti-euro constante y últimamente se regodea con los revolcones que la economía le tuerce a España, y nos recomienda, la recomendación dañina que se puede esperar del Inglés.
The euro is torture instrument for Spain
Ten years of euro membership have lured Spain into a terrible trap.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 20 Jan 2009
Esto son todo disparos por elevación del órgano de prensa Tory: Como hay una fuerte corriente para integrar la libra en el euro, probablemente al Barclays no le interesa, desde luego al Partido Conservador no le va y D. Ambrosio argumenta con la habilidad de un inglés inteligente. Aclaremos que los ingleses que lo leen lo critican muchísimo, no parecen menos inteligentes que él.
Spanish companies tapped the euro capital markets as if there was no tomorrow. Reliance on foreign borrowing reached 10pc of GDP, among the world’s highest. Wages went up and up. The result is a current account deficit that is also 10pc of GDP.
Now what? A country with full control over all levers of economic policy can claw its way out of such a hole. Spain can do almost nothing.
A key reason why Standard & Poor’s has stripped Spain of its AAA credit rating is that the country no longer sets its own interest rates and cannot devalue its currency to restore balance.
Se detecta como una nota de desesperación en su artículo: Gran Bretaña puede devaluar la Libra Esterlina, y la devaluará, y él o ellos o quienes sean, piensan que será bueno, que cuando Major lo hicieron y les fue muy bien y se transformaron en la Primera Potencia de Europa. Por no entrar en el Euro.
¿Ah, no lo sabía Ud.? Lo que va de ayer a hoy.
Y es que en 2005 Don Ambrosio con la camisa llena de viento se congratulaba, Gran Bretaña lo hacía tan bien que era la Primera Potencia de Europa. Por no entrar en el Euro.
Aquellos polvos trajeron estos lodos, apenas tres años de esa febril exaltación y Gran Bretaña es de nuevo El Enfermo de Europa, el coso este se dedica a criticarnos, y en EE.UU. el Daily Telegraph es un diario con una fama inmerecida en los EE.UU., por el hecho de que escriben en inglés y de que el idioma español es un idioma secreto, hablado por más de 300 millones … de pobres de solemnidad. Los artículos alarmistas de Don Ambrosio son citados y elogiados y eso de un tipo que nos llama PIGS todo el tiempo -dice que la expresión se le ocurrió a un alemán: yo qué sé, pero el que la usa todo el tiempo es él- y se equivoca continuamente.
El artículo del Telegraph de 2005 donde Don Ambrosio decía que Gran Bretaña era la Primera Potencia de Europa está casi oculto en el Telegraph -el enlace conduce a otra parte- así que lo pego abajo, porque conviene recordar estas cosas, ejemplo y enseñanza para incautos. Las partes interesantes están resaltadas en color, el artículo está muy hinchado de palabras.
Me hace reír que en la última frase recomienda ponerle una estatua a John Major en el plinto vacío que tienen en Trafalgar Square. Que pusieran una estatua a Montgomery de El Alamein me parece muy bien, pero una estatua de Major le pasaría como a la de Saddam en Bagdad.
——– Our long game pays off – Britain is the leading power in Europe ——-
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
06 Jun 2005
The leaders of France and Germany have spoken: Europe’s constitution must be kept alive. No matter that it was President Jacques Chirac’s own people who first rejected the text.
The referendums must roll on: the Danes in September, the Czechs, the Poles, the Irish, all in a bidding contest to see who can outdo the record 62 per cent No set by the Dutch. Such a blindingly misguided policy borders on insanity, unless the lame-duck leaders of two enfeebled economies actually wish to bring about the destruction of the EU.
Jack Straw has done the EU a favour by calling a halt yesterday. No referendum could be carried in Britain now. Sir Stephen Wall, Downing Street’s former Europe guru, confessed that only fear of isolation could have induced the British people to vote Yes, and even then with great difficulty.
Legally, a single rejection is enough to nix the treaty. Politically, a No from both of Europe’s leading defence and diplomatic powers is unanswerable. It is true that Ireland was made to vote a second time on the Nice Treaty to get it «right», but that followed a rogue result on a low turn-out with scant debate.
The Irish did in fact vote Yes the second time. But who thinks France could ever be made to vote again on the same document, like a naughty child served cold dinner for breakfast?
Gerhard Schröder and Mr Chirac seem to have learnt nothing, and forgotten nothing. Were their fingers not burnt enough by their «Praline Summit» in April 2003, called to announce Europe’s defiant stand against the Iraq war, when only Belgium and Luxembourg turned up?
The EU refused even to offer premises, so the meeting was held in the Brussels Hilton. We now know that 16 of the EU’s 25 current states were siding – publicly or not – with the Americans.
The Franco-German pair tried again last year, «choosing» a Belgian federalist to be president of the European Commission. They spoke too soon. The Poles balked. Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi would have none of it. The Dutch quietly begged Downing Street to step in. Tony Blair obliged. The Belgian was replaced by a free-market Atlanticist: José Manuel Barroso.
This is the new reality of post-Cold War Europe. If not the commanding power, a buoyant Britain is the leader of the EU’s now dominant bloc. France and Germany can cobble together majorities from time to time, but they cannot call the shots. The French have noticed this, which is why they now exhibit more or less the same reflexes as the British in the days of Jacques Delors, when Brussels seemed stacked against us (as it was).
I suspect Europe’s project reached its high-water mark last October in Michelangelo’s Campidoglio in Rome, exactly the same spot where it was launched in 1957. The 25 leaders gathered in the Sala degli Orazi e Curiazi were penning their names to a document most of them never much wanted, and invited failure.
The constitution was not drafted to make the EU «work better» as it grew to 25. Conjured by the German, French and Belgian elites, it was the final push to lock in a tight-knit Europe, with an imperial court, before the arrival of the 10 new states last year, knowing that it would be much harder to do so once the Poles, Latvians, Slovaks and others were fully bedded members. My guess is that the chance has now slipped from their grasp, for ever.
In crude terms, Britain’s long game in Europe has paid off, for which we owe a debt of gratitude to John Major. He kept us out of the euro at Maastricht, while keeping Britain just deep enough in the EU to secure the strategic prize of eastern enlargement. It was the most cunning straddle in modern British diplomacy.
Britain’s opt-out from monetary union is looking more valuable by the day. Indeed, one Italian minister cast an envious eye northwards last week. «In Europe, there is one perfect example: Great Britain, which grows and develops by maintaining its own currency,» he said.
His open call for a return to the Italian lira was not an isolated outburst. Three top figures in the Northern League have spoken of leaving monetary union in recent days, clearly calculating that Italy is now in such deep crisis that a party in the ruling coalition sees political rewards in fomenting revolt against the euro. This should alarm the markets. So far it has not. The «spread» between German and Italian bonds is a minuscule 0.22 per cent.
The Bundesbank warned in the 1990s that Italy’s economy could not endure the rigours of monetary union once the going got rough. The bank was told to shut up. Now the predictions are unfolding with alarming speed.
Italy’s labour costs have risen 25 per cent against Germany over the past five years, owing chiefly to higher wage inflation. This was predictable, since euro entry cut Italian interest rates to German levels almost overnight. Variants of this have occurred in Portugal and Greece, where boom is turning to bust – with Spain not far behind.
Already in recession, Italy now has to «deflate» to claw back competitiveness and save its industry from ruin, since it can no longer devalue. This means undercutting Germany’s near-zero wage inflation. Benito Mussolini pulled this off in 1927, using Fascist control over the unions to slash wages.
As a democracy, Britain had more trouble. Returning to the gold standard led to the General Strike in 1926, the worst civil conflict in a century. Wages proved «sticky» going downwards.
Italy is now in much the same position as Argentina in the last months of its dollar-peg. Food riots and a coalition crisis brought that ordeal to an end. Troubles at Fiat or Alitalia may prove to be the catalyst for Italy.
Investors counting on an EU bail-out to keep the game going should think again after Dutch and French voters so brutally halted Europe’s «inevitable» march to political and fiscal union, and polls in Germany show that 56 per cent want a return to the mark. For the first time, economists from major banks are openly discussing whether the euro can survive as an orphan currency.
For Mr Major, a long-overdue apology is deserved of us who hurled invective over Maastricht. And perhaps a little monument. There is an empty plinth below the National Gallery in Trafalgar Square. He might fit nicely.