Internet contaba de la Depresión II, por lo menos tres años antes y de sus causas financieras

Y de nuevo Internet se adelanta con soluciones suaves a la crisis y los diarios lo ocultan

Ahora todo son excusas en la prensa financiera que ellos no lo vieron venir, aunque informaron e informan muy bien de lo que ocurre.  Con la salvedad que eso es así en la prensa en idioma inglés, poque en la prensa española financiera o de información general la omertà o ley del silencio es evidente.

Un artículo reciente en The Observer/London cuenta lo que pasaba en las redacciones.

Why didn’t the City journalists see the financial crisis coming?
While the reporting has been impressive, forecasts were largely lacking, writes James Robinson
Bad news is generally good news for the media. At times of crisis, newspaper sales rise and more viewers tune in to television bulletins in search of information. Few stories are as dramatic, or as complicated, as the global credit crunch, which has bought the world’s financial system to its knees, although this time, newspapers have not seen their year on year circulations increase.

Los más cenizos diarios gruñen que si la BBC tiene demasiado poder

Without the turmoil in the financial markets, however, those figures might have been far worse. The credit crunch has elevated financial news to the front pages, and turned the BBC’s Robert Peston, a former Financial Times reporter, into a household name, prompting the Daily Mail to ask last week: ‘Does this BBC man have too much power?
That probably tells us as much about journalistic envy as it does about Peston’s influence, but it also demonstrates that City journalists are unique in one respect: the stories they write can move markets in a way that others rarely do. When he has referred to individual banks, Peston has been careful to stress that savers are unlikely to lose their money, and others have exercised similar restraint as the crisis has unfolded. The FT changed a front-page reference to ‘the world in fear’ to ‘the world in turmoil’ last week, as executives at the paper tried to communicate the momentous nature of the news without exaggerating its effect.

Even Peston did not see the crash coming, however. Should City editors and economics correspondents have predicted it?
Alex Brummer, the Daily Mail’s experienced City editor, believes they should have done. He argues that, although City journalists covered the problems of some individual companies creditably, few grasped the enormity, or scale, of the situation.

Jeff Randall, a business journalist and the Daily Telegraph’s editor-at-large, has been warning about personal debt and an unsustainable housing boom for years, and others have voiced similar concerns. Yet few identified the sub-prime market, or the credit crunch, as triggers that would push the world to the brink of recession, and senior figures at the FT admit they should probably have done better in that regard. Dan Bögler, the paper’s managing editor, says: ‘We believed the bankers when they said derivatives were making the world safer by spreading risk. But in reality it became a game of pass the parcel and the parcel ended up in the hands of those who least understood it. We take our share of the blame for that.

The Sun’s business editor, Ian King, who will shortly move to the Times, says: ‘I think the coverage has been absolutely terrific. On papers like our own it’s a particular challenge because financial news is often baffling for the lay reader.’ He points out that eight out of 10 City analysts were still issuing ‘buy’ notes on Northern Rock the day before it collapsed, and only one was recommending their clients sell shares in the bank. ‘Experts didn’t see it coming.’

El Financial Times se regodea, aunque ellos tampoco lo vieron venir, y a toro pasado se explican muy bien.

The FT’s Dickson points out: ‘The credit crisis has given a tremendous boost to our circulation and our website viewing figures. We have seen double-digit jumps in global retail sales in recent weeks while FT.com page views have risen by 300 per cent and unique users by 250 per cent. Why? We are a global newspaper and this is a global crisis.’

YO ESTO HACE AÑOS ANTES QUE LO SABÍA, Y SE LO CONTÉ A LOS AMIGOS

En Julio de 2006 yo le escribía a los amigos:

Este es un blog económico algo cenizo y escandaloso, pero que me parece bueno
www.economicapocalypse.blogspot.com
He juntado unos cuantos, muchos y os los mando.  Llega uno a la posible conclusión que la economía yanki se está yendo al carajo.  Que el dolar va a caer, y mucho.  Me parece que no quedaremos más guapos y con más pelo, si eso pasa.

Algunas cosas que se podían leer ahí en 2006 y años siguientes (yo supongo que desde antes)

We have discussed the slow nature of the world economic and political collapse. It is slow enough that the word ‘collapse’ might seem inappropriate. George Ure <http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm> makes an important point about what he calls the “piecemeal collapse:”

Molly Ivins last week wrote about the hedge funds/derivatives problem:
The Suicide of Capitalism www.truthdig.com/report/item/20060717_molly_ivins_suicide_capitalism/
These investment pools for rich folks are now a $1.2-trillion industry (known to insiders, I am pleased to report, as “the hedge fund community»). Hedge funds are now beginning to be used by average investors and pension investors. Back in 1998, there was this little-bitty old hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management. Because hedge funds make high-risk bets, Long Term Capital got itself in so much trouble its collapse actually threatened to wreck world markets, and regulators had to step in to negotiate a $3.6-billion bailout. A similar fiasco at this point probably would break world markets.

The Bush-Cheney team has racked up another $3 trillion in debt in just 6 years. The US national debt now stands at $8.4 trillion dollars while the trade deficit has ballooned to $800 billion nearly 7% of GDP.

This is lunacy. No country, however powerful, can maintain these staggering numbers. The country is in hock up to its neck and has to borrow $2.5 billion per day just to stay above water. Presently, the Fed is expanding the money supply and buying back its own treasuries to hide the hemorrhaging from the public. It’s utter madness.

Last month the trade deficit climbed to $70 billion. More importantly, foreign central banks only purchased a meager $47 billion in treasuries to shore up our ravenous appetite for cheap junk from China.

Do the math! They’re not investing in America anymore. They are decreasing their stockpiles of dollars. We’re sinking fast and Cheney and his pals are manning the lifeboats while the public is diverted with gay marriage amendments and «American Celebrity». (Es un programa parecido al Big Brother).

The American manufacturing sector has been hollowed out by cutthroat corporations who’ve abandoned their country to make a fast-buck in China or Mexico. The $3 trillion housing (equity) bubble is quickly loosing air while the anemic dollar continues to sag. All the signs indicate that the economy is slowing at the same time that energy prices continue to rise.

This is the onset of stagflation; the dreaded combo of a slowing economy and inflation.

Docenas de artículos así en Internet corrían en 2006, y antes aún.  Escritos con conocimiento por personas que no estaban en situación de autoridad ni bien incrustadas en los medios de comunicación.  Mucho antes del colapso de los bancos de inversión y del colapso de los hedge funds ya lo anunciaban, y en detalle, años antes.  Es inescapable concluir que los periodistas y los editores de los diarios y semanarios más prestigiosos y de la prensa financiera lo sabían, y superclaro que había orden de callar mientras el cuerpo aguante.

HAY OTRO COLAPSO ANUNCIADO QUE LA PRENSA ESPAÑOLA SISTEMÁTICAMENTE OCULTA AHORA MISMO

¡ Es la Geología, estúpido !  Se ha alcanzado el Pico Petrolero.  Aunque España se recupere en 2009 -se recupere algo, o deje de desplomarse al menos- como ya no puede haber Crecimiento Económico, y España importa todos sus combustibles, las oscilaciones brutales de precios del Petróleo y Gas Natural en 2010 y 2011 tendrán un efecto aún más destructivo sobre la economía mundial, y la de España en particular.

PORQUÉ CESA PARA SIEMPRE EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO

Una crisis que es de Geología -pico petrolero, de carbón, de gas y de uranio- y Malthusiana -pico de seres humanos- y toquetean las finanzas. Al haberse alcanzado el Pico de Hubbert no puede haber -por definición- expansión del consumo de energía, o no sería el pico. Y detrás del pico hay siempre una sima, montañeros. No puede haber expansión y crecimiento de la economía al ser imposible ya el crecimiento del consumo de petróleo. Ni puede haber expansión de la deuda por la misma razón. El comercio mundial en recesión no puede regresar al nivel anterior, por la misma razón.

No, las energías alternativas no pueden llenar el vacío del petróleo, el gas y el carbón. Son, principalmente electricidad, y la composición energética es muy diferente. La electricidad no es un combustible, por ejemplo.

Se impone una economía de la retracción, en la línea del Movimento per la Decrescita Felice [ en italiano: la noticia llega con retraso a España ] y similares: optimista. O, pesimista: una brutal Corrección Capitalista.

,,

Por Armando

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