Y si no el Final Total desde luego es el final de la Burbuja del Comercio Mundial

Business Week publica HOY un artículo  The End of the Trade Bubble?
Recent data from the U.S. and China hint at the bursting of a trade bubble, which may have been fueled by the credit bubble

On Feb. 11 the U.S. government announced that both imports and exports had plunged in December, continuing a trend that started in July. Since that midsummer peak, goods imports and exports are down by more than 25%. Imported goods, in particular, are now down to the level last reached in 2005

Las importaciones y exportaciones en EE.UU. han descendido bruscamente el 25% hasta el nivel que tuvieron en 2005.  Canadá que depende tanto del comercio con EE.UU. ha entrado en déficit.  Esto es así porque ese consumo fue financiado por deuda financiera y se ha terminado.  No es un caso de proteccionismo ni mucho menos como apuntaban con poca perspicacia periodistas españoles hace poco.  Esto se ha terminado y países que dependen fuertemente de las exportaciones, como Alemania, Japón y China se van a ver rudamente afectados.

How the Credit Boom Fed Trade
But there’s a good chance that the trade boom and the credit boom helped feed each other in all sorts of perverse ways. One example: Huge trade surpluses in China, Germany, Japan, and elsewhere created a pool of mobile capital, which flowed into subprime mortgages and all sorts of exotic securities. That is to say, the rest of the world lent the U.S. an enormous amount of money at low rates, which helped fuel the American housing boom. (It’s interesting to note that the growth of housing prices over the past 20 years roughly parallels the rise in trade.)

Another example: Cheap credit made it a lot easier for freight companies to finance new ships and trucks and for airlines to finance new planes. This, in turn, increased the supply of transportation and reduced the cost of shipping goods across long distances. In addition, supply chains that stretch across the ocean mean that more goods are in transit at any time. All of these goods in transit, which have been produced at a cost, but not yet bought by the final user, must be financed by someone. Until recently, such financing was cheap and easy to obtain.

El futuro es de pobreza, regreso al campo. regreso a un modo de vida menos consumista, caminar o viajar por medios de masas, trabajar mucho más por menos dinero, comer menos, comprar menos, viajar menos.  Y eso en el mejor de los casos.

Es una decadencia y probablemente un Colapso.  No Apocalipsis, sino Colapso.  Cuando los consumistas ridiculizan mis opiniones tachándolas de Apocalípticas no saben lo que dicen.  El Apocalipsis es un concepto religioso judío, el Colapso es un estudio científico de hechos probados.

Por Armando

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