E insta a todos los residentes británicos a llevarse la plata

Es el diario que leen los residentes británicos en Espann, es el diario que leen los ricos.

Jeremy Warner:

Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of The Daily Telegraph, is one of Britain’s leading business and economics commentators. He is @telegraphwarner on Twitter

Sostiene que lo ha dicho el Fondo Monetario Internacional !!

I’d not noticed this until someone drew my attention to it, but the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor, published last month, comes about as close to declaring Spain insolvent as you are ever likely to see in official analysis of this sort. Of course, it doesn’t actually say this outright. The IMF is far too diplomatic for such language. But that’s the plain meaning of its latest forecasts, which at last have an air of realism about them, rather than being the usual dose of wishful thinking.

Let’s take the projected budget deficit first. This is expected to decline quite steeply this year to 6.6 per cent of GDP, but that’s mainly because the cost of bailing out the banking sector fell substantially on last year’s budget. On a like-for-like basis, there has in fact been very little fall in the underlying deficit. And nor on the present policy mix is there ever likely to be, for that’s where the deficit is projected to remain until the end of the IMF’s forecasting horizon in 2018.

Next year, the deficit is expected to be 6.9 per cent, the year after 6.6 per cent, and so on with very little further progress thereafter. Remember, all these projections are made on the basis of everything we know about policy so far, so they take account of the latest package of austerity measures announced by the Spanish Government.

The situation looks even worse on a cyclically adjusted basis. What is sometimes called the «structural deficit», or the bit of government borrowing that doesn’t go away even after the economy returns to growth (if indeed it ever does), actually deteriorates from an expected 4.2 per cent of GDP this year to 5.7 per cent in 2018. By 2018, Spain has far and away the worst structural deficit of any advanced economy, including other such well known fiscal basket cases as the UK and the US.

So what happens when you carry on borrowing at that sort of rate, year in, year out? Your overall indebtedness rockets, of course, and that’s what’s going to happen to Spain, where general government gross debt is forecast to rise from 84.1 per cent of GDP last year to 110.6 per cent in 2018. No other advanced economy has such a dramatically worsening outlook. And the tragedy of it all is that Spain is actually making relatively good progress in addressing the «primary balance», that’s the deficit before debt servicing costs.

What’s projected to occur is essentially what happens in all bankruptcies. Eventually you have to borrow more just to pay the interest on your existing debt. The fiscal compact requires eurozone countries to reduce their deficits to 3 per cent by the end of this year, though Spain among others was recently granted an extension. But on these numbers, there is no chance ever of achieving this target without further austerity measures, which even if they were attempted would very likely be self defeating. IN any case, it seems doubtful an economy where unemployment is already above 25 per cent could take any more.

In the past, the IMF has been guilty of being far too optimistic about Spain, both on the outlook for growth and the public finances, so it’s possible it is now committing the reverse mistake of undue pessimism. Yet somehow I doubt it. Spain is chasing its tail down into deflationary oblivion.

All this leads to the conclusion that a big Spanish debt restructuring is inevitable. Spanish sovereign bond yields have fallen sharply since announcement of the European Central Bank’s «outright monetary transactions» programme. The ECB has promised to print money without limit to counter the speculators. But in the end, no amount of liquidity can cover up for an underlying problem with solvency.

Europe said that Greece was the first and last such restructuring, but then there was Cyprus. Spain is holding off further recapitalisation of its banks in anticipation of the arrival of Europe’s banking union, which it hopes will do the job instead. But if the Cypriot precedent is anything to go by, a heavy price will be demanded by way of recompense. Bank creditors will be widely bailed in. Confiscation of deposits looks all too possible.

I don’t advise getting your money out lightly. Indeed, such advise is generally thought grossly irresponsible, for it risks inducing a self reinforcing panic. Yet looking at the IMF projections, it’s the only rational thing to do.

PS. I don’t include creditors of the British arm of Santander in this warning, who are ring fenced from the mothership back bome in Spain, theoretically at least.

Read more by Jeremy Warner on Telegraph Blogs

 

 

 

 

 

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Por Armando

7 comentarios en «Daily Telegraph, Londres, dice que España es insolvente»
  1. Hola !
    .
    Pero, ché… Ahora se enterará Aznar, que sabe mogollón de Inglés, y además es rico, muy rico (lee el Daily Telegraph UK), y se llevará sus ahorros de España…
    .
    Lo que es tener cultura !
    .
    Salú !

  2. En España hay Un Millón de ingleses, residiendo estables o al menos están ahí.
    Quizás otro tanto entre Alemanes, Holandeses, Franceses, mucho Ruso ahora.
    .
    Son gente pudiente, no les llamemos ricos.
    .
    Si se llevan el dinero que tengan en los bancos en España, que lo veo lógico porque ellos no son los causantes de esta debacle, y una persona que trabajó en su país, se muda al jubilarse a otro para pasar sus últimos años tranquilo, y lo arruina un país tarado y un gobierno nefasto, como ha pasado en Chipre no hay derecho a arruinarlo, y los bancos se irán al carajo.
    .
    Y ni digamos si se asustan más y venden todo, liquidan su propiedad y se largan, cosa que ya está pasando.

  3. La verdad es que hay que escribir un «Diario o Bitácora del Colapso» con todas estas noticias, para la posteridad claro.

    Creo que fueron romanos del Bajo Imperio los que no demostraron casi interés en narrar el colapso de su época, habrán pensado que era una crisis pasajera supongo.

  4. Hola !
    .
    Y quién dijo que el período iniciado con Docleciano no tomó interés en dejar documentado los sucesos del período…?
    .
    En el Concilio de Nicea, -el Iznik-, del año 325 se reservaron los derechos, y actualmente el Vaticano tiene en su poder cada detalle y obra sociopolítica de la época, a la que (por conveniencia), sólo se puede acceder con reservas.
    .
    Está perfectamente documentado, y muchos de tales documentos clasificados se filtraron hasta llegar a sitios como Wikipedia, de la misma manera que hace poco tiempo el secretario de Benedicto filtró ciertos asuntos clasificados.
    .
    ——–
    .
    Ahora el FMI (por conveniencia), desautoriza al Daily Telegraph UK…
    .
    Los de la troika están que hechan humos por las orejas, en Madrid, que les desmontan el chiringuito… Vaya puterío que se avecina sobre Españáfrica, no…?
    .
    ——–
    .
    Salú !

  5. Hay algunas obras e itinerarios que cuentan lo que está pasando con la invasión de los bárbaros. San Agustín lo relata de pasada, naturalmente lo adjudica a un castigo divino.
    Es cierto que no hay mucho material, pero hay algo. Me parece que Bardi tiene escrito al respeto un artículo.
    .
    Encuentro de él,
    The Great Technological Wall
    .
    Chemistry of an Empire: the Last Roman Empress
    .
    Pero yo he leído otro artículo, y creo que era del Dr Bardi, que estudiaba precisamente ese tema, el de los últimos escritores romanos y que notaron la caída del imperio, a lo mejor me equivoco y era de otro.

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